Оцінка ризиків забезпечення надійного теплопостачання споживачів в умовах зовнішнього руйнування

Abstract

The current conditions of operation of the heat and power complex in Ukraine require a careful approach not only to the energy efficiency of both the main equipment and the energy supply systems as a whole, but first of all, the issue of safety and reliability of their operation in extreme conditions becomes the most important. This is typical for both the energy complex, industrial enterprises and the municipal sector. One of the most important in the municipal sector is the heat supply of residential neighborhoods. The heat supply of residential complexes during the heating season has an important social component, which in turn affects the general state of the energy sector, industry and other important areas of the country's activity. This shows the importance of assessing the risks of failures of the heat supply system and its elements, as well as the possibilities and effectiveness of the system and its individual subsystems being reserved. The paper analyzes modern methods and approaches to determining the probability of failure of both individual elements and the heat supply system as a whole. Based on the analysis of literary sources, the relationship between elements and events in the heat supply system is presented by a diagram of failures of heat supply systems as a result of destruction. Also, to assess the reliability of both individual elements and the heat supply system as a whole, an approach based on a "failure tree" was used, which corresponds to the methodology for assessing risks and causes of emergency states of a complex system. In this case, appropriate logical symbols are used that link events according to the causes that influence the occurrence of the event. For a specific heat supply system of a microdistrict of the city, a study was conducted based on the selected methods to determine the probability of failure of both individual elements of the heat supply system and the entire system in extreme conditions. The results obtained make it possible to assess the importance of collecting statistical data on the frequency of failures over a long period of operation of the heat supply system. The possibility of using the method of expert assessments in the absence of the required amount of statistical data accumulation is also demonstrated